Mars vigila

During his inauguration speech on January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump made a bold declaration about sending American astronauts to Mars as a part of his plan to restore American greatness:  "We will pursue our manifest destiny into the stars, launching American astronauts to plant the Stars and Stripes on the planet Mars."

Trump emphasized that this mission would not only involve reaching Mars but also establishing a long-term presence on the moon: "This time, we will not only plant our flag and leave our footprints — we will establish a foundation for an eventual mission to Mars, and perhaps someday, to many worlds beyond." Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX and a driving force in private space exploration, visibly supported Trump's Mars declaration with applause and a thumbs-up gesture.

Under Musk’s leadership, SpaceX has embraced a "fail forward" strategy—a development approach that encourages rapid iteration and learning from failures. This approach has led to remarkable successes, such as the reusable Falcon 9 rocket and the colossal Starship prototype. By iterating quickly, SpaceX has been able to innovate at a pace unprecedented in the space industry, achieving significant milestones at a fraction of traditional costs.

However, adopting the "fail forward" principle on manned Mars missions could have significant implications. While failures in unmanned missions provide invaluable data to refine systems, the stakes are far higher when human lives are involved. Historical tragedies such as the Columbia and Challenger disasters underline the catastrophic consequences of system failures in human spaceflight. Similarly, the failures of the Mars Polar Lander and Climate Orbiter in 1999 forced NASA to rethink its "faster, better, cheaper" strategy, emphasizing the need for a balance between innovation and proven reliability methodologies.

A Mars mission presents an array of technical challenges. The spacecraft, life support systems, and propulsion technologies must function flawlessly for years in the harsh environment of deep space. Radiation exposure, microgravity, and the psychological toll of isolation further complicate mission planning. While the "fail forward" strategy can drive rapid advancements, it raises ethical questions when applied to missions where the slightest failure can result in certain loss of life.

Maintenance & Reliability engineers are often called to make difficult choices between reducing costs and securing the long-term reliability of assets. When dealing with dangerous circumstances impacting human life, the answer should be simple: better safe than sorry.

As we consider the monumental task of sending humans to Mars, it is worth reflecting on the rituals of ancient Roman generals. Before embarking on their campaigns, they would visit the sacred temple of Mars, the god of war, and solemnly declare, "Mars vigila” (Mars, be vigilant). This invocation serves as a timeless reminder of the need for caution when facing great challenges.

Wim Vancauwenberghe
Maintenance Evangelist and director of BEMAS